ETF analysis flags diesel price squeeze on US freight and farming
The Engine Technology Forum (ETF), a Washington DC-based industry group, has published analysis identifying near- and longer-term strategies for reducing diesel consumption, as the national average on-highway diesel price climbed to $6.285 per gallon on 14 September 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration data. That figure represents a rise of nearly 69 cents per gallon in two weeks and is approximately 70% higher than a year earlier, exceeding the previous record set in 2022.
ETF executive director Allen Schaeffer said diesel "powers 97% of the largest commercial trucks, more than two-thirds of all farm and construction equipment, and nearly all locomotives and marine workboats." Industry analysts cited by ETF attributed sustained price pressure to tight global distillate supplies, low inventory levels, refinery disruptions and seasonal demand.
Near-term operating levers
The analysis centres on four operational factors that fleet operators can address without capital investment. Speed management is identified as the most significant: a Class 8 tractor-trailer travelling at 70 miles per hour uses roughly 15% to 25% more fuel than the same vehicle at 55 to 65 mph. ETF calculates that a truck covering 100,000 miles annually at 6.6 miles per gallon would consume approximately 2,650 more gallons than one running at 8.0 mpg, adding around $16,600 in annual fuel costs at current prices.
Engine idling is flagged as the second major lever. A heavy-duty truck burns between half a gallon and one gallon per hour at idle; two hours of daily idling across 250 operating days adds roughly 400 gallons and $2,512 in avoidable cost. ETF cites fleet telematics data from Geotab indicating that construction equipment commonly loses 30% to 40% of productive time to idling. Maintenance practices and tyre pressure are also cited: the US Department of Energy estimates that each pound-per-square-inch drop in average tyre pressure reduces fuel economy by around 0.2%.
Fuel substitution and the electrification gap
On longer-term fuel strategy, ETF advocates biodiesel and renewable diesel blends, citing a 2022 study suggesting expanded biomass-based diesel production could lower diesel prices by around 4%. Most diesel engines can accept blends up to B20 (20% biodiesel, 80% petroleum diesel), and renewable diesel can substitute directly. The analysis notes that some newer farm equipment supports blends up to B30.
ETF also points to natural gas and propane as alternatives that have not experienced comparable price volatility, and acknowledges a limited but growing range of electric trucks and compact construction equipment, while noting that charging infrastructure access, operating range and higher upfront costs remain constraints.
Market and policy context
The ETF is an industry coalition funded partly by engine and fuel-system manufacturers, so its guidance tends to favour incumbent diesel-adjacent technologies including biodiesel and natural gas rather than battery-electric or hydrogen pathways. That framing is worth noting: the analysis does not assess the full lifecycle cost or emissions trajectory of the alternatives it recommends.
For fleet operators, the short-term advice is largely operational and does not require the capital outlay associated with fleet electrification. The longer-term substitution case for renewable diesel and biodiesel intersects with US policy: the Inflation Reduction Act's clean-fuel production credit under Section 45Z took effect in 2025, creating a per-gallon incentive for domestic production of low-carbon liquid fuels that partially supports the economics ETF describes.
The price spike also reinforces the commercial case for accelerating fleet electrification timelines, even as infrastructure gaps persist. Several large logistics operators have signed multi-year electric-vehicle procurement agreements, and the current diesel price environment will likely sharpen those calculations. How quickly charging infrastructure can scale to match commercial fleet duty cycles remains the binding constraint.