Only 15% of firms have quantified climate-risk costs, Capgemini finds

A Capgemini survey of 701 large organisations finds climate adaptation spending is rising even as net-zero implementation slips sharply.

By Rowen Brooks Thu, 17 September 2026 AI level 2 of 5

AI level 2 of 5: drafted by our AI editorial assistant from source material our editor chose; fact-checked, edited and signed off by Mark Walker, Editorial Director. What the levels mean

A modern conference room with a white podium and microphones on a wooden stage faces rows of empty chairs, while large windows behind reveal a city skyline including The Shard and The Gherkin, all illuminated by natural light.

Climate adaptation has moved from a sustainability footnote to a boardroom priority, yet most large organisations still cannot put a reliable financial figure on what climate disruption actually costs them. That is the central tension in the fifth edition of the Capgemini Research Institute's "A World in Balance" report, published on 16 September 2026, which surveyed 2,100 executives at 701 organisations with annual revenues above $1 billion across 13 countries.

Just 15% of those organisations have fully quantified the financial impact of climate-related disruptions. Fewer than one in three say they have assessed climate risks across their extended value chain or deployed dedicated climate-risk analytics tools. This is despite nearly nine in ten reporting that climate events have already disrupted their supply chains.

Adaptation spending accelerates

The spending signal is nonetheless clear. Organisations reported that sustainability investment ran at 1.04% of revenue last year, ahead of the 0.8% they had originally budgeted. Some 83% say they plan to increase climate adaptation spending over the next 12 to 18 months. Nearly 70% of executives say their organisations actively prioritise adaptation, up from 56% in 2025, and around two-thirds say sustainability initiatives have generated a net-positive return on investment.

The composition of those priorities is also shifting. More than seven in ten respondents say that securing access to critical resources, including energy, water and raw materials, now carries more weight in sustainability decisions than emissions-reduction targets. Water scarcity is emerging as a specific concern: 61% of executives believe water stress will constrain business growth more than energy availability over the next five years.

Cyril Garcia, Capgemini's global head of Sustainability services and member of the Group Executive Board, noted the pace of change: "Climate change disruptions have become our new normal, and yet there is still a wide gap between business leaders' awareness of the risks and actual implementation."

Net-zero delivery falters

The adaptation momentum contrasts with a deteriorating picture on decarbonisation commitments. The share of organisations falling behind on net-zero goals has risen more than tenfold in a single year, from roughly 1% in 2025 to 11% in 2026. Some 29% say they have postponed net-zero objectives outright, compared with 8% a year earlier. The proportion able to measure and collect Scope 3 emissions data across their full value chains has also fallen, from 54% to 34%.

Only 42% of organisations with science-based targets say they are on track to meet their 2030 or interim milestones.

Market and policy read-across

The findings carry direct relevance for investors and capital allocators operating in the climate-risk disclosure space. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures framework and the incoming International Sustainability Standards Board standards are increasing pressure on corporates to move beyond narrative resilience claims toward audited, financially material climate-risk figures. The gap between the 84% of organisations claiming science-based targets and the 15% able to quantify their climate-risk exposure is precisely the gap that mandatory disclosure regimes are designed to close.

Climate-risk analytics and adaptation technology represent a growing investment category. Specialist platforms for value-chain emissions tracking, physical-risk modelling and water-stress mapping are attracting venture and growth capital as regulatory demand for disclosed, verified data intensifies.

The survey's finding that AI use for sustainability purposes is widespread but largely unmeasured adds a secondary dimension. Nearly half of respondents say AI has materially increased their greenhouse gas emissions, yet only around a third measure the energy consumption of their AI workloads. For policymakers designing product-level carbon accounting rules, this gap between deployment and measurement is a live problem.

The full "A World in Balance" report is available via the Capgemini Research Institute website.